![]() ![]() In other words, what we are seeing today-Russia's unilateral declaration of war-is the clearest statement yet of Russia's actual position: Putin empathizes with Bashar al-Assad as a fellow leader holding his country back from the brink and doing the dirty work that needs to be done to accomplish that, and the U.N. Ditto for all that talk of "political solutions" and "diplomatic solutions" and "dialogue" we heard about in Syria. for the inevitable Russian veto. As Steven Lee Meyers, Moscow correspondent for the New York Times, pointed out, Russia does not seem to even remember that the institution exists today. or Europe want to do anything on the world stage, Russia pipes up, demanding the issue be taken to the U.N. Putin's Kremlin is dark and scary, and, ultimately, very boring. To a large extent, Putin really believes that he is the one man standing between Russia and the yawning void. They truly believe that there is an American conspiracy afoot to topple Putin, that Russian liberals are traitors corrupted by and loyal to the West, they truly believe that, should free and fair elections be held in Russia, their countrymen would elect bloodthirsty fascists, rather than democratic liberals. And you know why being a pessimist is the best way to predict outcomes in Russia? Because Putin and those around him are, fundamentally, terminal pessimists. There's rumbling in the Crimea, will Putin take advantage and take the Crimean peninsula? You betcha. ![]() There are protests in the streets of Moscow. Will Vladimir Putin allow the ostensibly liberal Dmitry Medvedev to have a second term? Not a chance. ![]() Unfortunately, all you really need to do to seem clairvoyant about the place is to be an utter pessimist. Pessimism always wins. One of the reasons I left my correspondent's post in Moscow was because Russia, despite all the foam on the water, is ultimately a very boring place. Trying to harness Russia with our own logic just makes us miss Putin's next steps. And it will gather whatever spurious reasons it needs to insulate itself territorially from what it still perceives to be a large and growing NATO threat. Russia, or, more accurately, Putin, sees the world according to his own logic, and the logic goes like this: it is better to be feared than loved, it is better to be overly strong than to risk appearing weak, and Russia was, is, and will be an empire with an eternal appetite for expansion. It is often predicated on wholly Western logic: surely, Russia won't invade because war is costly and the Russian economy isn't doing well and surely Putin doesn't want another hit to an already weak ruble because Russia doesn't need to conquer Crimea if Crimea is going to secede on its own Russia will not want to risk the geopolitical isolation, and " what's really in it for Russia?"-stop. We didn't think Putin would do this. Why, exactly? This has often puzzled me about Western analysis of Russia. And when such an opportunity presents itself, one would be foolish not to take it, especially if one's name is Vladimir Putin. It was a small rumbling, but just big enough for Russia to exploit. As soon as the revolution in Kiev happened, there was an unhappy rumbling in the Crimea, which has a large Russian population and is home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The situation in Kiev-in which people representing one half of the country (the Ukrainian-speaking west) took power to some extent at the expense of the Russian-speaking east-created the perfect opportunity for Moscow to divide and conquer. The situation is changing rapidly, but here are some initial thoughts. Vladimir Putin has asked the Federation Council-the upper chamber of Russia's dummy parliament-to authorize the use of force not just in Crimea, but "on Ukraine's territory until the socio-political situation is normalized." And though American spies and the Washington Post categorically ruled this out just days ago, this was not entirely unexpected. ![]()
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